Over the last few years, I’ve accumulated beeswax from the apiary and during honey harvests. I’ve made videos about harvesting the wax and refining it.
I have enough now to do some fun things with it, like making some candles.
On a recent episode of the Vergecast (a podcast worth listening to) one of the topics is about the state of the cable TV business. Host David Pierce predicts “traditional cable TV is going to be basically dead and gone” in 2025.
This is a topic I can speak to with some actual knowledge having worked in the television industry for 30+ years, with specific work in cable.
Back in the late 90s, cable TV was on the rise. There was no concept of internet steaming and large media companies were cashing some fat checks from cable TV revenue. I led the buildout of the Disney Channel playback facility in 1996 and was told to reserve space for many more channels.
To explain the boom in cable channels at the time, I need to explain a little about the economics of the era.
First, remember in the late 90s, the only way to watch “cable television” is via a cable or satellite TV provider (think Comcast or DirecTV). There was no streaming and Youtube didn’t even get started until 2005.
People were watching cable television and their appetite for more seemed unsatiable. I’ll use the term ‘cable provider’ to refer to the companies that managed getting the television signal to the home and provided the set-top box. I use ‘media company’ to refer to the companies that made shows for a cable channel and sent out the signal for a cable provider to use.
The virtuous cycle at the time worked like this.
People were willing to pay cable providers to get access to shows on various cable networks.
Cable providers made money from cable subscriptions.
Cable providers paid media companies for the right to provide the channels to subscribers.
Media companies made money via advertising on cable channels. The more eyeballs the more money.
Media companies invest in more/better shows and more channels to increase demand for cable subscriptions which they request more money from cable providers.
The better the content, the more people subscribed to cable tv, increasing revenue for the cable provider and the media companies (via advertising).
Hence an explosion of cable channels in this era to fill all kinds of niches that people were interested in.
Critical was the negotiations between the media companies and cable providers for the rates paid. In general, media companies were paid a certain price per cable subscriber. These rates ranged from several dollars for top ‘must have’ channels (such as ESPN) to several cents for niche channels.
Media companies held the upper hand in these negotiations as they forced bundles of all their channels onto the cable providers, even though the cable providers didn’t want all the channels. The ‘must have’ channels, like ESPN and Disney Channel, were in demand by people at home, so to get them the cable providers had to accept an entire block of additional channels and agree to pay some cents per subscriber for them as well. Cable providers passed these costs onto people at home, starting the inevitable rise in cable subscription prices.
Slowly, as streaming technology grew, prices for cable went up because Wall Street demands continuous growth every quarter. Stress on the industry grows with difficult negotiations, lots of hardball, and customers frustrated by poor service and price hikes.
Deal points start to hinge on ‘TV Everywhere’ the industry term for granting rights to stream shows online to people who pay for traditional cable. This is where to watch HBO Max online, you could sign in through DirecTV (or whatever cable provider), and watch shows. The backend is complicated and in some ways cripples pure streaming plays due to contractual obligations, but it tempers the anger of frustrated people at home just trying to watch their shows online.
The cable contracts are still huge cash cows for media companies, but nothing gold stays
As the Streaming Wars begin, it is traditional cable that in large part foots the billions to spin up new services within the media companies. As a result, cuts start being made on the cable networks to free up cash so Wall Street remains happy that ‘number go up’.
Thus starts the vicious cycle for cable networks.
As the networks, spend less on shows, viewers look elsewhere. With lower viewership, it hammers the economics in terms of lower advertising revenue and less that can be demanded in per subscriber fees.
With less income, there are less good shows, which leads to drops in ratings, which leads to worse financials for the media companies, who then continue to cut because they need the profit ‘number go up’.
Cord cutting begins in earnest as people are tired of cable bills and start turning to streaming. The pure streaming plays like Netflix, Hulu, Youtube, and others develop into almost complete replacements for traditional cable providers. If the early years, it’s inconsistent and difficult to set up, but the ecosystem begins to form with Roku, Chomecast, Apple, and others bringing simplicity to the home set up.
The early cord cutters preach their gospel to friends and family, and it takes root in millennials and Gen Z who were raised in the internet era. Most people under 40 don’t even consider paying for traditional cable as they can get everything they want over the interwebs.
All that said, there is still a large number of people that turn on the TV in the evening and just flip channels all night and watch live, linear TV for hours on end. The horror. I know. But come to grips with the fact that ~40% of American households still pay for traditional cable TV service, probably paying ~$125-150/month. It remains a juggernaut of cash flow, offsetting other costs in the transition to streaming.
These viewers are mainly the older generations, who still have buying power and some advertisers want to reach. But this group continues to shrink. There is still money to be made, so the businesses continue onwards, slowly shrinking. But the future is in streaming as everyone knows.
You can see the media companies try to adapt with low cost reality shows, police/legal procedurals that appeal to the older demographics, and paying for sports licensing which is truly the only appointment television left.
In the long term, only the cable networks with the highest brand identity will survive the transition to a mainly streaming world. People will talk about what shows they watch but can rarely tell you if they came from a cable network or were only on a streaming provider. A network like Bravo has the needed brand feelings in viewers, but few others do. Bafflingly, Warner Bros. Discovery took one of the most well known cable brands, HBO, and tossed it out the door to call their streaming service Max. People literally know the sound of an HBO sound starting, but couldn’t tell you much about Max.
Yes, the traditional cable TV business is going through some things.
But it will be around quite a while longer because there is still money to be made and a lot of people don’t like change, but they do like their cable remote.
We don’t get harsh winters in Los Angeles, but the cold and reduced forage do have an effect on the bees. I looked in on the ladies and the Pink Hive was simply too weak to survive, as I had feared over the last few inspections.
The queen is two years old. As queens get older, the can become less productive and slow or stop laying eggs. I had been seeing the drop off over the last few inspections. Without new bees, a colony is doomed.
I ended up combining the Pink Hive into another, to save as many of the bees as I could. Unfortunate, but still hoping for the other three stronger hives to make it to spring.
After eight years of dormancy, this weblog has awakened from it’s long slumber, like a creature risen from death by a sorcerer and given new life.
I started blogging in January 2000, making this weblog almost 25 years old. This probably makes me a blogging ‘old head’, having gone to weblog meetups IRL when the ideas were new, meeting the first generation of bloggers and blog software writers at the early SxSW Interactive conferences, and lurking in the many IRC channels of the early Web 2.0 era.
But as Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Instagram, and modern social media began to consume the interwebs, my posting on this weblog fell off in 2014 and stopped completely in 2016.
Thanks to the command line wizardry from my friend Greg, color ideas from my wife Michele, and WordPress code help from claude.ai, I was able to restore this blog into operation.
Why restart a weblog in 2024?
I stopped posting here in 2016, but I didn’t stop writing and doing things online. I started writing at Medium, as it was simple and easy to use. I like to make videos and posted them on Youtube and TikTok.
Most of my online interaction was on Twitter and Discord, with frequent posting on those platforms. Over time, I’ve became disenchanted with Twitter and stopped using it. I’m mainly on Bluesky these days and enjoy it.
The idea of having a central place to put all the things I do online is appealing to keep some sort non-ephemeral record of my online musings. I will still be posting stuff on other platforms, but having a place here, that I control is appealing.
I had heard about POSSE before and Greg discussed it with me further as I tried to decide what to do. Made a lot of sense to me.
How cruftbox.com was returned to the land of the living
Previously, the blog ran on Movable Type, which evidently still exists (It’s big in Japan!). Greg recommended a move to WordPress, as it is the defacto standard system these days, compatible with almost everything. There has been recent drama in the WordPress community, but it’s a safe choice to use and leaves me the opportunity of migrating to a different CMS in the future.
Greg seemed to effortlessly transmogrify my broken Movable Type system into a modern WordPress operation and I began learning how to use it more fully. Previously, I ran a simple WordPress blog about my thoughts on EVE online, but starting from scratch and not really modifying much, it was a simple posting tool.
I love Andy’s sidebar linkblog and made my own version with the help of claude.ai which was able to write the WordPress code for me. I know it’s underhyped, but this AI stuff may catch on.
For those that don’t know me, I made a short About page to give a little insight into who I am.
Mostly, I’ll be posting videos and occasionally an actual written post about whatever is on my mind. The linkblog will be an easy way for me to share interesting items that I come across. I’ll keep tweaking it to scratch my itches.
I read on a Kindle, which allows me the ability to highlight text and save it. Recently, I saw a post by Michael Sippey with his Kindle highlights for the year. Fun idea. American Gods: The Tenth…
Many years ago, my wife’s grandmother, Popo, would make Chinese style riblets. She’d have the butcher split the baby backs in half and marinate them in soy sauce and sugar and then cook in a pot until they fell off the bone. They were delicious and I loved the idea of the ribs being split into appetizer size.
I came up with a way to smoke riblets that has become a fun treat for parties. Michele requested it for Christmas Eve this year. Who am I to refuse?
So here is how I smoke riblets.
I pick up standard baby back ribs from the market and have the butcher split the ribs with the band saw. When I get home, i wash the ribs well to get off any debris and blood.
An important step is removing the membrane. I pat the ribs dry and use a paper towel to get a better grip.
I put my smoke rub on the ribs. Not heavily, just enough for a thin coating.
After letting the rub sit on the ribs for an hour or so, I cut them in half and place into my smoker.
I let the ribs smoke for about 2-3 hours. Just one box of chips in the box until I pull them out and bring them back into the kitchen.
The trick to good riblets as appetizers is to cut them individually BEFORE they go all off the bone soft. If you wait until later, everything tends to fall apart.
The riblets are now placed in a basic ‘Texas Crutch’ setup where they are wrapped in foil, in a pan. I pour in a cup or two of apple juice to help keep them hydrated and add a tiny bit of sweetness.
I put the pan back in the smoker and just keep the heat at 200-225° for 8-10 more hours. No more smoke, just heat.
When it’s about a half hour before dinner, I pull them out and open the foil to let them rest. When it’s time to eat, I place them in a serving dish, warm up some BBQ sauce to accompany, and the riblets are good to go.
Many post gift guides before Christmas, but I found myself unable to do so. I did think about it and write a few notes down. So, exactly one month after Christmas, I present the official Cruftbox Gift Guide! Liberty Puzzles
Liberty Puzzles take the hobby to the next level, providing heirloom quality puzzles that look and feel like artwork. The term ‘jigsaw’ puzzle comes from the fact that early puzzles were cut from wood sheets by a jigsaw tool according to a pattern drawn on them. Liberty continued that tradition but uses a laser cutter to get the precision needed to cut what they call ‘whimsy’ pieces. Whismy pieces are puzzle pieces that are cut into a shape that is in line with the picture on the puzzle. Holiday images are made of holiday shapes. Japanese woodblock prints are made of Japanese icons and shapes. Liberty puts a huge amount of effort into creating a cohesive puzzle that doesn’t use repeating standard shapes, instead using a unique set of shapes literally designed to accompany the puzzle image.
If you know someone that likes puzzles, they will love getting a Liberty Puzzle. They aren’t cheap, but they are most definitely worth it. Tonx Coffee
Tonx is a subscription mail order coffee company. Met the founders, Tony & Nik in of all places, a coffee shop, when they were just getting started. They find and roast great coffees from all over the world and ship them directly to their subscribers. Personally, I love the lighter roasts with more flavor and notes than the heavy dark roasts you find at most chain coffee shops and beans you get at the super market. Tonx provides just this kind of coffee.
I love the delivery aspect of the business and the serendipity of not knowing exactly what you are going to get. In a world where people spend endless hours analyzing before purchases, it’s fun to simply put yourself in the hands of an expert and try new thigns.
It’s more spendy than the average bag of coffee, but I think it’s worth it to get the quality. Just like wine or spirits, spending a little more for quality can be worth it and much more enjoyable.
You can give a gift subscription or subscribe for yourself. You can use my referral link if you want to try it for free. Victorinox Swiss Army Knife – Rambler
Everyone should have a small pocketknife with them at all times. Be Prepared is not just the Boy Scout Motto, it’s a good way to look at life.
I recommend the Victorinox Rambler. This knife doesn’t have a single ‘wasted’ slot, filled with tools you’ll use on a daily basis. Just a bit over two inches long, it has a perfect assortment of bits. The small blade and scissors are probably most useful. The bottle opener and file aren’t used as much, but when they are needed, nothing else will suffice. They are nicely topped with small flathead and Phillips screwdriver heads. Rounded out with the traditional tweezers and toothpick, the Rambler is all function, no fluff. It’s great on a key chain or in a purse to solve life’s minor inconveniences. See’s Candy
See’s Candy is a Los Angeles institution. The familiar black and white shops are scattered across the Southland and are a welcome sight to any Angeleno. Everyone has a favorite candy (mine is the Scotchmallow) and for most brings back memories of the free samples in the store. While See’s has maintained a very traditional brand with uniforms, limited hours, and an emphasis on customer service, they have a great online store where you can get anything packaged and shipped. Besides ordering the standard boxes, you can also make a custom mix of just the chocolates that you think would be best.
Pretty much everyone loves a box of chocolate, and See’s is the perfect mix of tradition, personalization, and wonderful tasting candy. Cool Tools by Kevin Kelly
Kevin Kelly is an amazing polymath, having been involved in the Whole Earth Catalog, Wired Magazine, and writing one of my favorite books, What Technology Wants. In Cool Tools, he’s taken the reviews he’s gather in the last decade on his Cool Tools site, and actually printed them out into a gigantic catalog of, well, cool tools. Prefect for a coffee table or a bathroom read, the book is something that engages your mind in the possibilities of making new things and new ways of doing familiar things.
Today marks the anniversary of starting my weblog, Cruftbox. I’ve been blogging for 14 years now. Posting stories about my life actually started a little earlier, with this one about The Most Expensive Cup of Coffee back in 1997, but it wasn’t until January 2000 that I got rolling with a real fervor and software to help.
Things have changed a wee bit since those heady days, just past the Y2K scare, when mobile phones were used for talking, the wail of a modem connecting was common, and Napster was a new idea.
I’ll come right out and say it, personal weblogs, for the most part, are dead. [queue the furious responses] I can almost hear the keyboards typing in fury in response.
But it’s true. Social software has replaced the role of weblogs in documenting and sharing an individual’s life.
Yes, there are still people with personal weblogs out there, but for the most part they focus on a specific topic or issue the person is interested. A person’s interest in a sport or fitness program, or their food adventures in eating out or cooking, or even facing illness or other tough circumstances are the kinds of things that is what makes up the fewer and fewer number of personal weblogs out there.
That said, it’s not a bad thing. Change is inevitable and generally we forward in a better direction. Twitter, Facebook, and other modern sharing systems are fun.
I do worry that the ephemeral nature of social networks does lead to a tremendous amount for information being lost and unretrievable. Weblogs at least have a chance of staying up long enough to get indexed and maybe even backed up on archive.org.
Many weblogs exist today as adjunct to the main focus, which is social media and getting posts to go viral. They are not about having a conversation anymore. Here, I actually turned off comments because no one used them except spam robots. No one said a word when I did.
I spoke to my daughters about my weblog. They are 15 & 18, growing up immersed in the internet and connected as long as they can remember. I asked what they thought of Cruftbox. They said that it was neat, but that no one does this anymore. I asked what they considered their ‘home’ on the internet, where people coudl best get a view of who they are. One said her Tumblr site, another said Facebook. This it the foreseeable future. You can rage against if you want, but the coming of age generation sees personal weblogs as an anachronism.
Now we shouldn’t take that to mean that people should stop blogging, simply as a sign that change is happening. Just as at one time, your .plan file and your usenet signature were important identifiers in a way that many can’t comprehend today, weblogs are heading down the same path. New things continue to appear and allow your voice to be heard, weblogs are clearly not the only way.
So face up to the reality that most personal weblogs are run by tech saavy middle aged folks, slowly watching an era end. This is not something to be sad about, for new amazing things are coming. Think of it like the leaves of fall on the ground being the fertilizer for the flowers of spring.
